Macro · Fundamentals · Global
Macro & Trading Intelligence
Fundamental data, macroeconomic developments and global market regimes for well-informed trading decisions.
Data as of · Proprietary macro database · Not investment advice.
Growth (GDP, year on year)
US 2.1%EA 1.3%UK 1.9%
Inflation (CPI, year on year)
US 3.7%EA 4.0%UK 3.5%
Labour market (unemployment rate)
US 4.1%EA 6.5%UK 4.7%
Policy rates
Fed 4.00%ECB 2.65%BoE 4.00%
Macro overview (US)
| Indicator | Latest | Previous | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI) Sep 26 | 3.7% | 3.4% | ↗ |
| Core inflation Sep 26 | 2.6% | 2.4% | ↗ |
| GDP (real) Jul 26 | 2.1% | 2.2% | ↘ |
| Unemployment rate Oct 26 | 4.1% | 4.2% | ↘ |
| Policy rate (upper bound) | 4.00% | 3.75% | ↗ |
Central bank rates (policy rates)
| Country / region | Policy rate | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Fed (US) | 4.00% | tightened |
| ECB (Euro area) | 2.65% | tightened |
| BoE (UK) | 4.00% | tightened |
| SNB (CH) | 0.00% | unchanged |
| BoC (CA) | 2.50% | tightened |
| RBA (AU) | 4.85% | tightened |
| RBNZ (NZ) | 2.75% | tightened |
| BoJ (JP) | 1.25% | tightened |
Yield curves (10Y − 2Y / yields)
Chart values
| Period | US | DE | UK | CA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | +50 | +23 | +25 | +24 |
| 2020 H2 | +79 | +13 | +34 | +47 |
| 2021 | +119 | +46 | +66 | +93 |
| 2021 H2 | +77 | +46 | +29 | +48 |
| 2022 | +4 | +69 | +35 | +13 |
| 2022 H2 | −60 | −20 | −4 | −76 |
| 2023 | −106 | −87 | −88 | −131 |
| 2023 H2 | −39 | −37 | −44 | −78 |
| 2024 | −38 | −32 | −6 | −49 |
| 2024 H2 | +34 | +28 | +19 | +30 |
| 2025 | +51 | +74 | +66 | +68 |
| 2025 H2 | +68 | +74 | +76 | +85 |
| 2026 | +28 | +38 | +60 | +64 |
| 2026 H2 | +27 | +25 | +35 | +47 |
Chart values
| Maturity | US | DE | UK | CA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | +4.86 | +3.13 | +4.98 | +3.34 |
| 5Y | +4.96 | +3.19 | +5.01 | +3.56 |
| 10Y | +5.13 | +3.37 | +5.33 | +3.82 |
| 30Y | +5.46 | +3.74 | +5.76 | +4.12 |
Curve regime
- USA
- Bull Flattener
- Germany
- Bull Flattener
- United Kingdom
- Bear Flattener
- Canada
- Bear Flattener
Rate differentials (2Y, basis points)
| Pair | Spread | Direction | Yield advantage |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | −171 | → | USD |
| USD/JPY | +295 | → | USD |
| EUR/GBP | −164 | → | GBP |
| GBP/USD | −7 | → | USD |
| AUD/USD | +10 | → | AUD |
| NZD/USD | −148 | ↗ | USD |
| USD/CAD | +148 | ↘ | USD |
| CHF/JPY | −155 | ↗ | JPY |
Currency strength (G10)
| Currency | 1h | 2h | 8h | Day | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | −0.46 | +0.27 | +0.37 | +0.19 | +0.47 |
| GBP | +1.18 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.24 |
| NZD | +0.71 | +0.15 | −0.61 | −0.36 | −0.23 |
| CAD | +0.34 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.24 |
| JPY | −0.68 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.32 |
| AUD | +0.77 | +0.09 | −0.69 | −0.42 | −0.43 |
| EUR | +0.72 | −0.23 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.47 |
| CHF | −0.81 | −0.82 | −1.34 | −0.76 | −0.66 |
G10 FX bias (macro & rates)
| Pair | Macro trend | Spread | Regime | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | USD stronger | −171 | Risk-off | USD |
| USD/JPY | Sideways | +295 | Risk-off | USD |
| EUR/GBP | Sideways | −164 | Risk-off | GBP |
| GBP/USD | USD stronger | −7 | Risk-off | USD |
| AUD/USD | USD stronger | +10 | Risk-off | USD |
| NZD/USD | USD stronger | −148 | Risk-off | USD |
| USD/CAD | USD stronger | +148 | Risk-off | USD |
| CHF/JPY | JPY stronger | −155 | Risk-off | JPY |
Risk-on / Risk-off
- Equity internals
- neutral
- Credit spreads
- mildly supportive
- Volatility
- mildly supportive
- Growth (copper/gold)
- headwind
- Safe havens
- mildly supportive
- Rates & liquidity
- mild headwind
- Currencies
- mildly supportive
Macro regime
Quad 4: Deflation / downturn
Growth and inflation are slowing. (USA, Q3 2026)
- Growth
- slowing (2.1%)
- Inflation
- falling (3.5%)
- US yield curve
- Bull Flattener
- Market environment
- Risk-off
Historical trends (selection, G10)
Inflation
Chart values
| Period / maturity | US | EA | UK | JP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.44 | +1.76 | +2.45 | +0.99 |
| 2019 | +1.81 | +1.19 | +1.76 | +0.48 |
| 2020 | +1.24 | +0.25 | +0.78 | −0.02 |
| 2021 | +4.69 | +2.60 | +2.74 | −0.25 |
| 2022 | +8.01 | +8.37 | +9.08 | +2.51 |
| 2023 | +4.14 | +5.46 | +7.33 | +3.25 |
| 2024 | +2.95 | +2.37 | +2.48 | +2.74 |
| 2025 | +2.69 | +2.12 | +3.34 | +3.20 |
| 2026 YTD | +3.35 | +2.91 | +3.03 | +1.63 |
GDP
Chart values
| Period / maturity | US | EA | UK | JP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.97 | +1.80 | +1.62 | +0.85 |
| 2019 | +2.58 | +1.72 | +1.40 | −0.30 |
| 2020 | −2.08 | −6.10 | −10.03 | −4.33 |
| 2021 | +6.39 | +6.65 | +9.38 | +3.73 |
| 2022 | +2.44 | +3.80 | +5.15 | +1.25 |
| 2023 | +2.92 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.90 |
| 2024 | +2.95 | +1.23 | +1.12 | +0.05 |
| 2025 | +2.34 | +1.30 | +1.23 | +1.15 |
| 2026 YTD | +2.30 | +1.03 | +1.37 | +0.75 |
Labour market
Chart values
| Period / maturity | US | EA | UK | JP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +3.89 | +8.20 | +4.07 | +2.43 |
| 2019 | +3.68 | +7.56 | +3.83 | +2.36 |
| 2020 | +8.10 | +7.95 | +4.66 | +2.80 |
| 2021 | +5.35 | +7.74 | +4.52 | +2.82 |
| 2022 | +3.65 | +6.74 | +3.79 | +2.59 |
| 2023 | +3.62 | +6.55 | +4.07 | +2.57 |
| 2024 | +4.02 | +6.35 | +4.30 | +2.54 |
| 2025 | +4.26 | +6.30 | +4.88 | +2.52 |
| 2026 YTD | +4.23 | +6.42 | +4.90 | +2.53 |
Policy rates
Chart values
| Period / maturity | US | EA | UK | JP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +2.50 | 0.00 | +0.75 | −0.10 |
| 2019 | +1.75 | 0.00 | +0.75 | −0.10 |
| 2020 | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 |
| 2021 | +0.25 | 0.00 | +0.25 | −0.10 |
| 2022 | +4.50 | +2.50 | +3.50 | −0.10 |
| 2023 | +5.50 | +4.50 | +5.25 | −0.10 |
| 2024 | +4.50 | +3.15 | +4.75 | +0.25 |
| 2025 | +3.75 | +2.15 | +3.75 | +0.75 |
| 2026 YTD | +4.00 | +2.65 | +4.00 | +1.25 |
Country comparison (fundamentals)
| Country | GDP (y/y) | Inflation (y/y) | Core inflation | Unemployment rate | Policy rate | 10Y yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.00% | 5.13% |
| Euro area | 1.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.5% | 2.65% | 3.37% (Bund) |
| United Kingdom | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.00% | 5.33% |
| Japan | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.25% | 2.89% |
| Canada | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 6.7% | 2.50% | 3.82% |
| Australia | 2.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.85% | 5.14% |
| New Zealand | 2.6% | 3.7% | n/a | 5.7% | 2.75% | 4.85% |
| Switzerland | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 5.1% | 0.00% | 0.57% |
Data & methodology
- Figures from our proprietary macro database (official statistics, central banks, market data); latest published release in each case.
- GDP and inflation year on year; history as annual averages, policy rates at year-end.
- Curve slope = 10Y minus 2Y government bond yield, at half-year end. Curve regime: change in 2Y and 10Y yields over one month.
- FX spread = 2Y yield of the base currency minus the quote currency. EUR uses German Bunds as the benchmark.
- Central bank stance: policy rate today compared with six months ago.
- Currency strength (“institutional” approach): strength against the basket weighted by FX turnover (BIS), divided by the typical volatility in the same time window (z-score; ±1 normal, ±2 or more unusual). Overall = average of all eight time windows (as of ).
- Macro trend: price relative to the 200-day moving average; bias: macro and rates assessment per currency.
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